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  • Weekly Exit – September 2025 | Issue 39

Weekly Exit – September 2025 | Issue 39

Your weekly 5-minute digest for this week’s exits & signals

September 27, 2025

🔥 Top Exits & Liquidity Highlights

  • TikTok U.S. restructuring / sale talks — The ByteDance U.S. business is being restructured: investors including Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX are exploring leasing the algorithm rather than a full sale, targeting a ~$14B valuation.

  • Cardless raise — $60M capital infusion into fintech credit stack.

  • Novacap → IAS (Media measurement) — ~$1.9B acquisition in North American media tech consolidation.

  • Actis → 800 Super (Singapore healthcare chain) — Strategic buyout in Asia health infrastructure.

💡 Liquidity snapshot: While mega M&A is quieter, strategic restructurings (TikTok U.S.), selective carve-outs, and growth raises are filling the void.
As seen in Axios Pro Rata, total U.S. M&A value is up ~22% YoY even as deal count is down ~14%.

📊 Deal Deep Dives & What’s Behind Them

TikTok U.S. Reconstruction / Algorithm Leasing

  • Backstory: U.S. regulators pressed ByteDance to divest or restructure TikTok’s U.S. presence. Leasing the algorithm offers a middle path: data/technology control without full divestment.

  • Why it matters: Sets a novel precedent—major tech asset sales might be replaced by licensing + governance frameworks.

  • Lesson: For founders in regulated domains, structuring flexible control models (lease, license, escrow) may preserve optionality in exit paths.

Novacap acquires IAS (~$1.9B)

  • Backstory: IAS has been a key player in ad verification, viewability, and fraud detection.

  • Why Novacap paid: Media measurement is critical infrastructure — buyers view accuracy / trust as a bottleneck.

  • Lesson: “Data gravity” in ad-tech still draws premiums — when your output is trust, you become non-optional.

💵 Valuation & Macro Multiples

  • M&A value vs count disconnect: Deal value is rising even as deal counts shrink.

  • Fintech M&A comeback: 94 deals to date in fintech, up from 76 last year. Payments, wealthtech, and crypto infra are leading. Sifted

  • Private equity environment: U.S. PE deal count down ~5% YoY, but YTD deal values are up ~30%. Ropes & Gray

Trend: We’re in a phase of concentration — fewer deals, but larger and more strategic.

📌 Milestone Signals & Sector Moves

  • Fintech revival: European fintech M&A is reaccelerating, anchored around payments infrastructure. Sifted

  • Layoff wave persists: ~6,000 tech layoffs in August; xAI cut ~500 annotation roles in Sept. TechCrunch

  • Startup consolidation narrative: 2025 is seeing more M&A as a primary exit route, not just IPOs. MicroVentures+1

  • Social / algorithmic licensing — TikTok U.S.

  • Media infra / ad-tech — IAS deal

  • Fintech / credit stack — Cardless raising

  • Healthcare / infrastructure — 800 Super acquisition

🔥 AI, payment rails, and media trust infrastructure continue to concentrate exit interest.

🧑‍💼 Executive & Org Moves

  • Founder exits trending: Alphabet’s acquisition of Wiz ($32B) is a top exemplar—highlighting the strategic imperative of securing cybersecurity talent and IP. AInvest

  • Lobby & governance staffing: As regulation looms (TikTok, AI oversight), expect more board/legal/business development hires ahead of exits.

🏦 Private Equity Watch

  • Secondaries on fire: H1 2025 secondaries activity already eclipsed prior full-year volumes. Ropes & Gray+1

  • Exit backlog pressure: Holding periods stretch to ~6.4 years for buyouts. Exits must accelerate or valuation gaps grow. Ropes & Gray

  • PE arms eyeing IPO pace: Carlyle plans $4–5B in 2025 exits via IPOs or sales. Reuters

⚖️ Regulation & Deal Risk

  • TikTok U.S. politics: Congressional pushback may force re-negotiation of any lease model.

  • Media consolidation & health operations: U.S. lawmakers propose banning insurer ownership of Medicare providers. Axios

  • Tariffs & cross-border risk: Trade friction still suppresses global M&A confidence.

  • AI & algorithm regulation: As seen in the TikTok structure, algorithm control is now under regulatory spotlight.

🎯 Exit Prep Tip of the Week

Build exit optionality through control flex tools (licenses, earn-outs, governance)
If you can’t sell a knife, lease the cutting edge. Prepare dual paths—sale, license, escrow—so acquirers choose, not force you.

🔮 Market Pulse & Deal Radar

  • IPO pipeline: Expect more listings via restructuring or spin-outs (TikTok, media) plus fintech names.

  • M&A rhythm: Tuck-ins (AI safety, compliance modules), media infrastructure picks, fintech infra consolidation.

  • Macro overlay: Deal inflation (value up, count down) remains a key dynamic. Axios

📝 Signals Playbook

  • Founder lens: In a world where algorithms are assets, your control model may become your exit thesis.

  • Investor lens: Fewer deals doesn’t mean fewer opportunities — pick where trust, control, and bottlenecks meet demand.

📚 Resource Spotlight

  • Axios Pro Rata (recent deals & deal inflation)

  • Sifted — fintech M&A comeback coverage

  • MicroVentures — why 2025 is trending toward consolidation

✍️ Editorial Closing

This week reminds us: control is value. The TikTok U.S. restructuring is a signal—algorithms, data rights, and governance rules are now exit levers. Combined with revival in fintech M&A and media consolidation, you don’t need a super deal this week to know where the wind is blowing. Be nimble, tighten control, and let architecture be your exit path.