Weekly Exit – September 2025 | Issue 38

🔥 Top Exits & Liquidity Events (This Week)

• StubHub (Ticketing) — IPO raised ~$800M at ~$8.6–$8.8B valuation; started trading mid-week.

• F5 → CalypsoAI (AI Security) — $180M acquisition announced (closing expected this quarter).

• Minute Media → VideoVerse (Sports/AI Video) — Undisclosed; brings Magnifi’s AI auto-clipping into Minute Media’s sports stack.

• SMBC/Apollo/Brookfield/Sumitomo → Air Lease (Aircraft Leasing) — $7.4B take-private (announced earlier; still driving read-through).

• Cadence → Hexagon Design & Engineering (CAE) — €2.7B (~$3.16B) carve-out to expand Cadence’s simulation/“physical AI” suite.

💡 Disclosed deal value this week (and rolling 2-week context): ~$4.1B+ new + carry-over megadeals (Air Lease, Cadence) shaping comps.

📊 Deal Deep Dives

StubHub IPO — ~$800M raised

• Backstory: Third attempt; paused in April amid volatility.

• Why it priced: A stronger September IPO tape + clear category storytelling (resale + primary partnerships).

• What to watch: Take-rate stability, fraud/chargeback costs, and live-events supply entering Q4.

• Lesson: Category leaders with durable take-rates can clear the IPO bar even in choppy tapes.

F5 → CalypsoAI — $180M

• Backstory: Enterprises are operationalizing GenAI; CISOs need model-agnostic guardrails.

• Why F5 paid: To place AI prompt/output controls where traffic already lives (F5’s L7 footprint).

• Lesson: Distribution > features — controls at the inference edge command strategic dollars.

Minute Media → VideoVerse (Magnifi) — Undisclosed

• Backstory: Minute Media has been assembling a rights + creation + distribution stack.

• Why it matters: Magnifi’s AI clipping turns live games into monetizable short-form inventory at scale.

• Lesson: AI that manufactures inventory (clips, reels, sponsor cuts) wins even when ad markets are mixed.

💵 Valuations & Comps

• AI Security tuck-ins: Frequently clear in the $100–$300M band (CalypsoAI sits mid-range).

• Design/Engineering software: Strategic buyers paying ~10–12× revenue for workflow control (Cadence/Hexagon D&E implied ~10×).

• Aircraft leasing take-privates: Priced on EV, orderbook quality, and funding cost more than revenue multiples (Air Lease $7.4B equity; ~$28.2B incl. debt).

Trend: Strategics are paying premiums for workflow chokepoints (security, simulation); sponsors lean into scale + financing certainty (leasing).

📌 Milestone Signals (Not Exits, But High-Signal)

• Swiss Marketplace Group (SIX: SMG) priced at the top of range → European marketplaces still in favor.

• Zijin Gold International (HK) launched $3.2B offering — Hong Kong’s largest IPO of 2025; metals momentum spills into listings.

• IPO cadence: September window is active; expect additional tech/infra names to queue before month-end.

🗺️ Sector Heatmap (Week of Sep 13–19)

• Marketplaces / Ticketing (IPO) — $0.8B

• AI Security (M&A) — $0.18B

• Sports/AI Media (M&A) — Undisclosed

• Engineering/Simulation (M&A) — $3.16B (prior-week announce; shaping comps)

• Aircraft Leasing (Take-Private) — $7.4B (prior-week announce; watch regulatory path)

🔥 Read: AI at the edges (security, media production) + asset/scale plays (leasing) dominated the narrative and comps.

🧑‍💼 Executive & Org Moves

• New-issue finance benches: Multiple in-pipeline IPO candidates added CFO/Controller talent ahead of filings.

• Post-deal resets: Take-private and carve-out targets continue to install Day-0 leadership to accelerate 100-day plans.

Signal: C-suite moves clustered around transactions remain the clearest near-term timing tells.

🏦 Private Equity Watch

• Carve-outs: Boards are revisiting non-core units (wealth, tooling, adjacencies) — sponsor playbooks emphasize Day-1 separation and quick EBITDA bridges.

• Private credit: Keeps enabling $1–$5B transactions with tighter timelines and less syndication risk.

• Secondaries: Larger pools are smoothing LP liquidity, supporting exit comp stacks into Q4.

⚖️ Regulation & Review

• Air Lease take-private: Expect multi-jurisdiction reviews; Ireland hub concentration in aircraft finance remains a talking point.

• AI & antitrust: Courts and regulators increasingly cite LLM/agent competition when assessing search/platform remedies.

• Data portability (& EU Data Act): Buyers now diligence exportability, provenance, and model input governance as standard pre-close workstreams.

🎯 Exit Prep Tip of the Week

Ship a one-page “Telemetry Pack” with every banker/strategic intro.
Include: (1) Cohort NRR by segment, (2) Inference-cost unit economics (if AI-exposed), (3) Compliance posture (portability, provenance, governance), (4) Cash conversion + debt capacity.
Outcome: Faster underwriting → tighter spreads → better multiples.

🔮 Market Pulse & Deal Radar

• IPO window: Still open; breadth moving beyond software into marketplaces, metals, and critical infra.

• M&A cadence: Expect more AI guardrail tuck-ins and media tooling buys; late-Q3 also favors carve-outs as FY-planning drives portfolio actions.

• Macro: Mixed U.S. labor prints but credit spreads steady → constructive for sponsor math into October.

📝 Signals Playbook

• Founder takeaway: Make your product the default path inside a critical workflow (security, simulation, content ops). Distribution + telemetry beat novelty.

• Investor takeaway: Follow licenses, orderbooks, and data rights. Where access is scarce, exits cluster — and premiums follow.

📚 Resource Spotlight

• IPO calendars: Track weekly queues to time announcements.

• AI governance checklists: Map to data portability & provenance to shorten diligence.

• Carve-out playbooks: Day-1 / 100-day integration plans remain a core value lever.

✍️ Editorial Closing

Two lanes led this week: AI at the edge (guardrails, content engines) and scale economics (leasing, engineering). If you control the workflow or the rail, capital finds you — and your exit options multiply. Keep the operating story crisp, the telemetry audit-ready, and the next window is yours.