Weekly Exit – September 2025 | Issue 36

🔥 Top Exits & Liquidity Events (This Week)

• Cadence Design Systems → Hexagon D&E division (CAE software) — $3.16B (70% cash / 30% stock). Adds structural & multibody simulation to Cadence’s stack; D&E did €265M revenue in 2024. ≈ 10.2× revenue on the headline price.

• Amazon → Axio (India lending) — deal completed; secures a licensed lending rail for Amazon’s India fintech push (terms undisclosed).

• KKR → Samhwa (Korea packaging) — $528M buy from TPG; another Asia consumer/industrial platform for KKR.

• Kraken → Breakout (prop trading infrastructure) — acquisition closed; brings evaluation-model prop trading into Kraken’s product suite. (Terms undisclosed.)

• Verint (CX analytics) — $2.0B take-private announced last week by Thoma Bravo; still within the decision window founders watch because it sets SaaS clearing prices.

💡 Disclosed M&A value this week: ≈ $3.7B+ (Cadence + KKR; Amazon/Kraken undisclosed). Add last week’s Verint $2.0B if tracking rolling 10-day flow.

📊 Deal Deep Dives

Cadence → Hexagon D&E (€2.7B / $3.16B)

Backstory: Cadence has been expanding beyond chip EDA into system simulation. Hexagon’s D&E unit adds deep CAE for auto/aero customers. 2024 revenue: €265M.
Trigger: AI-assisted engineering + software-defined vehicles are collapsing design loops; OEMs want single-vendor simulation stacks.
Why Cadence paid: Cross-sell into hyperscale chip customers moving up into mechatronics; consolidate simulation SKUs; push beyond semis. At ~10.2× revenue, Cadence is paying a strategic premium to own a broader physics layer.
Lesson: In “AI-accelerated R&D,” workflow control (data + simulation + verification) earns double-digit revenue multiples.

Amazon completes Axio (India)

Backstory: Amazon’s financial stack in India leaned on partnerships; owning a lending license tightens the loop from marketplace to credit.
Trigger: India’s digital credit growth + regulatory path for direct lending arms.
Why it matters: Positions Amazon to finance merchants and consumers natively, unlocking flywheel effects.
Lesson: In fin-infra, license + distribution beats thin-layer partnerships over a multiyear horizon.

Kraken → Breakout (prop trading)

Backstory: After acquiring NinjaTrader in May, Kraken is stitching together pro-grade trading rails. Breakout backs traders with evaluation capital.
Trigger: Exchanges are racing to augment volumes/margins with higher-ARPU products.
Why they paid: Proprietary trading + evaluation models deepen engagement and data moats while diversifying revenue.
Lesson: In crypto, product breadth + capital access is the new differentiation; infra M&A is the fastest route.

💵 Valuations & Comps (This Week)

• Engineering/Simulation: ~10.2× revenue (price €2.7B vs. €265M rev). Strategic software with mission-critical workflows can clear 10–12× revenue when it expands a platform’s TAM.

• Asia Consumer/Industrial: $528M; packaging assets typically trade on EBITDA comps with operational uplift.

• SaaS Take-Privates: EV ~$2.0B, $20.50/sh cash; reference point for sticky mid-growth enterprise software.

Read-through: Strategic buyers are back to paying double-digit revenue multiples for workflow control. PE buyers continue to price durable SaaS on efficiency/cash conversion.

📌 Milestone Signals (Not Exits, But High-Signal)

• University of Phoenix filed for a U.S. IPO — a reopening for for-profit/post-secondary names.

• Baseten raised $150M Series D at $2.15B valuation, only 6 months after its Series C — evidence of sustained appetite for AI infra.

• Treeline Biosciences unveiled clinical candidates with $200M in new funding.

• IPO window: Klarna, Gemini, Figure and others prepping roadshows; fall calendar is live again.

• StubHub & Netskope may start marketing as soon as Monday — strong indicators for tech issuance tone.

🗺️ Sector Heatmap (This Week)

• Design/Engineering Software — 1 deal | $3.16B

• Fintech (India lending) — 1 completion | Undisclosed

• Crypto/Trading Infrastructure — 1 deal | Undisclosed

• Consumer/Industrial (Asia) — 1 deal | $0.53B

🔥 Theme: Workflow + license deals dominated: simulation software (workflow) and regulated fintech rails (license) drew premiums.

🧑‍💼 Executive & Org Moves

• Walgreens (newly private under Sycamore) named Mike Motz CEO — textbook Day-0 reset post take-private.

• Warner Bros (post-split) named Brad Singer CFO ahead of 2026 separation — prepping for a clean S-1-ready finance org.

Signal: CFO and CEO appointments clustered around transactions are leading indicators of timeline and operating thesis.

🏦 Private Equity Watch

• Secondaries: Carlyle raised $20B for secondaries — accelerates exit optionality for LPs/GPs.

• Deal value trend: Global PE/VC deal value up ~19% YoY in H1 even as volume fell — “fewer, bigger” persists.

• Private credit: Market size $1.5–$2.1T and growing; the enabler for take-privates without banks.

Takeaway: Expect more platform + carve-out plays where private credit tightens timelines and certainty.

⚖️ Regulation & Review

• HPE–Juniper $14B: 20 state AGs urged court scrutiny of DOJ’s settlement — residual risk even after federal clearance.

• Google search ruling: Court acknowledged AI rivals (ChatGPT, Perplexity) while limiting structural remedies — AI is reshaping antitrust logic.

• EU Data Act: Enforcement frameworks due Sept 12; portability/access rules will shape diligence in M&A.

Founder lens: Build a reg-forward diligence pack. Regulatory readiness = faster closes.

🎯 Exit Prep Tip of the Week

Prove “Runway to Operating Leverage” in 1 page.
Buyers underwrite your next 6–8 quarters, not your last. Ship a one-pager with:

1. Three value levers (price, mix, attach)

2. Dated milestones (product/geo launches)

3. Talent plan (CFO/VP Sales hires locked)

4. Telemetry you’ll report monthly (bookings mix, NRR by cohort, gross margin bridge)

This “credibility pack” is what moves multiples.

🔮 Market Pulse & Deal Radar

• U.S. IPOs: Post-Labor-Day window open; Klarna, Gemini, Figure, Legence queuing.

• Tech issuance: StubHub and Netskope may market imminently — good test for consumer and cyber demand.

• Macro tone: Risk assets slid into Friday after weak U.S. jobs data; spreads matter for PE financing into late September.

📝 Signals Playbook

• Founder takeaway: Own the workflow and acquirers will pay up. If you’re infra or tooling, make your product the default path from idea → production.

• Investor takeaway: Follow licensing chokepoints (lending, payments, spectrum, data portability). Where licenses or data rights gate growth, exits concentrate.

📚 Resource Spotlight

• H1 PE Pulse (EY): Exits at a three-year high; corporates are buying again.

• Global Private Markets (McKinsey, 2025): LPs still leaning into private assets — continuation funds rising.

• Antitrust & AI (Skadden): Overview of AI-era merger scrutiny & national security overlays.

✍️ Editorial Closing

This week says it plainly: owning the workflow (Cadence) and owning the rail (Amazon/India lending; Kraken/prop infra) is where strategic dollars are flowing. Add a reopening IPO window and an energized secondaries market, and the playbook is clear: make your product or license the bottleneck. Keep the operating story tight, and exit doors swing wider — even when macro flickers.