Weekly Exit – August 2025 | Issue 34

🔥 Top Exits of the Week

• Dayforce (HR Software) – In advanced talks to be taken private by Thoma Bravo for ~$11.2B

• Tecton (AI/ML Infra) – Acquired by Databricks (stock deal, est. ~$900M value)

• CardioAI (Healthcare Analytics) – Acquired by Medtronic for $800M

💡 Total disclosed exit value this week: $13.0B. Driven primarily by Dayforce’s massive $11B SaaS buyout – one of 2025’s largest tech PE deals.

📊 Deal Deep Dives
(See detailed analysis above — kept unchanged for context.)

💡 Valuations & Comps

• AI/ML infra: ~10–12× ARR (Databricks/Tecton). Strong appetite for “picks-and-shovels” AI infra.

• Healthcare AI: ~8× revenue once reimbursement kicks in (CardioAI). Regulatory de-risking boosts multiples.

• SaaS take-privates: ~5–6× revenue (Dayforce). Public → private arbitrage is back.

Extra context: Compare to last year — in 2024 SaaS take-privates often cleared at 3–4× revenue. That rebound shows how credit markets + operational confidence are resetting the PE playbook.

📌 Milestone Signals This Week

• Anthropic’s $170B valuation → hyper-inflated but market-defining. Expect ripple effects in AI recruiting & acquisitions.

• Databricks $100B+ raise → positions it as the consolidator of AI infra. Future IPO delayed, but M&A spree continues.

• Chime IPO success → key proof point that fintech IPOs can trade well in public markets again.

• Crypto regulatory relief → could reignite shelved IPOs (Coinbase peers, custody providers).

🗺️ Sector Heatmap

• AI/Infra – 4 deals, $1.8B

• Healthcare Tech – 3 deals, $1.2B

• Fintech – 2 deals, $0.6B

• Enterprise SaaS – 2 deals, $2.4B

🔥 AI + Healthcare = ~60% of exit value this week. These two categories remain the bellwether of 2025 deal flow.

🧑‍💼 Executive Moves

• Engine CFO hire → IPO runway in 2026.

• Plaid adds President → IPO prep despite delays.

• Wiz lacks CFO → IPO bottleneck, investors anxious.

Why it matters: Exec hiring is the leading indicator. Founders should remember: CFOs are often more predictive of IPO timing than bankers or press leaks.

🏦 Private Equity Watch

• Mega-checks return: Dayforce shows PE will buy decacorns if public markets undervalue them.

• Sector breadth: Beyond SaaS, PE is buying cable, infra, and fintech. PE has become the “default acquirer” for mid-cap tech.

• Financing note: Private credit is now a $2T+ asset class. Expect even larger take-privates as PE bypasses banks.

Takeaway: The PE floor sets valuations for SaaS. If you’re trading under 5× revenue with solid ARR, expect inbound calls.

⚖️ Regulation Watch

• EU DMA oversight → slows Big Tech’s ability to scoop up startups quietly.

• US outbound restrictions → less cross-border capital flow into China tech.

• UK listing reforms → dual-class IPOs could lure startups away from Nasdaq.

Founder lens: Regulation is no longer just compliance — it’s shaping your exit options.

🎯 Exit Prep Tip of the Week
Retention = Valuation. Lock in key people with stay bonuses and refreshed equity. Acquirers care about continuity, not just ARR.

🔮 Market Pulse & Deal Radar

• IPO Watch: Shein (Hong Kong, $60B+), Stripe (H2 2025 possible), Discord & Reddit (confidential filings rumored).

• M&A Watch: Databricks shopping again; Epic Games secondary sale at ~$40B; biotech “mergers of equals” gaining steam.

• Macro backdrop: Rates holding steady → credit markets loosening. Public tech multiples drifting higher → confidence building.

📝 Signals Playbook

• Founder takeaway: Fundamentals > hype. A reimbursement letter (CardioAI) or CFO hire (Engine) can be worth more than 10 TechCrunch headlines.

• Investor takeaway: Dislocations = opportunities. PE snapping up SaaS is proof: undervalued assets with sticky revenue will always find buyers.

📚 Resource Spotlight

• Book: The Messy Marketplace — plain-spoken guide to selling into PE.

• Podcast: Private Equity Funcast — inside-baseball on SaaS buyouts.

• Tool: Fortune Term Sheet — quick daily scan of venture + M&A deals.

✍️ Editorial Closing
This week confirms:

• Private equity is the buyer of last resort and first resort. If Wall Street undervalues you, PE will write the check.

• AI is still in land-grab mode. Infra deals and mega-raises are reshaping the stack.

• Healthcare AI is moving mainstream. Policy + reimbursement = immediate acquisition triggers.

👉 The real art is reading the signals early: CFO hires, regulatory wins, quiet PE approaches. By the time a deal closes, the story has already been written.

Stay sharp, stay signal-driven, and see you next week.