Weekly Exit – August 2025 | Issue 33

Your weekly 5 minute digest for this week's exits

Author

Jonathan Kalibbala
August 16, 2025

🔥Top Exits of the Week

  • Firefly (AI Cloud Infra) – Acquired by Google for $1.2B

  • WaveForms AI (Healthcare Diagnostics) – Acquired by Thermo Fisher for $900M

  • Intermex Payments (Fintech) – PE-led take-private at $1.1B

💡 Total disclosed exit value this week: $3.2B. Strong rebound from July’s $2.1B.

📊 Deal Deep Dives

Firefly → Google ($1.2B)

  • Backstory: YC-born infra startup simplifying multi-cloud ML deployments.

  • Trigger: Surging enterprise demand for hybrid AI training pipelines.

  • Why Google Paid Up: To close gaps with AWS SageMaker + Azure AI Studio.

  • Lesson: Infra plays that remove complexity in AI pipelines are high-value acquisition targets.

WaveForms AI → Thermo Fisher ($900M)

  • Backstory: Built FDA-cleared AI tools for early cancer detection.

  • Trigger: Strong hospital adoption + major Medicare reimbursement approval in June.

  • Why It Matters: Reimbursement policy acted as a de facto exit catalyst.

  • Lesson: In regulated industries, policy shifts can open the M&A floodgates.

Intermex Payments → PE Consortium ($1.1B)

  • Backstory: Cross-border remittances to LatAm with growing digital share.

  • Trigger: Margins steady, user growth slowed → public markets undervaluing.

  • Why PE Bit: Rollup into broader fintech portfolio; cut SG&A, scale margins.

  • Lesson: “Boring” but profitable fintechs attract PE when multiples compress.

💡 Valuations & Comps

  • AI Infra exits now trading at 10–12x ARR (Firefly).

  • Healthcare AI with regulatory wins = 8–9x revenue (WaveForms).

  • Fintech remittance deals = 6–7x EBITDA (Intermex).

📊 Trend: Multiples improving across AI & healthcare, PE still driving fintech deals.

📌 Milestone Signals This Week

These aren’t exits — but they’re signals:

  • OpenAI secured $1B Microsoft Azure credit expansion → strengthens IPO readiness.

  • Stripe landed a $400M U.S. Treasury pilot for instant payments → public market optics.

  • Redwood Materials announced partnership with GM on battery recycling → IPO timeline signal.

  • Coinbase gained partial regulatory relief via SEC settlement → reopens crypto IPO window.

🗺️ Sector Heatmap

AI/Infra – 5 deals, $2.0B disclosed value
Healthcare AI – 4 deals, $1.1B
Fintech – 3 deals, $1.4B
Enterprise SaaS – 2 deals, $350M

🔥 AI + Healthcare = 60% of deal value this week.

🧑‍💼 Executive Moves

  • Stripe hires new CFO (ex-Morgan Stanley) – classic pre-IPO signal.

  • OpenAI COO exits – may hint at governance pivot before larger fundraising.

  • Plaid brings in CRO from PayPal – setting up for monetization-heavy IPO prep.

🏦 Private Equity Watch

  • PE activity remains strong in “mid-size profitable SaaS” (rollups).

  • Multiples in SaaS PE: 4–6x ARR → attractive vs. strategic buyers.

  • Expect more PE-led take-private deals as public markets undervalue mid-cap fintech.

⚖️ Regulation Watch

  • SEC softened rules on SPAC redemption timelines → could reignite SPAC pipeline.

  • HHS expanded reimbursement for AI diagnostics → fuels healthcare M&A.

  • DOJ reviewing AI infra acquisitions → antitrust pressure on Big Tech deals.

🎯 Exit Prep Tip of the Week

Customer Concentration Kills Valuation.
If 40% of your revenue is tied to one customer, acquirers haircut your multiple. Diversify 12–18 months before your exit process.

🔮 Market Pulse & Deal Radar

  • IPO window: creaking open → Instacart revival showing decent aftermarket performance.

  • Credit markets: rates stabilizing → PE buyout math improving.

  • Rumors:

    • Databricks prepping confidential IPO (2026 window).

    • Scale AI exploring secondary sales at $12B valuation.

📝 Signals Playbook (Founder & Investor Lenses)

  • Founder takeaway: Regulatory wins & partnerships are as critical as ARR in setting up for an exit.

  • Investor takeaway: Exec hires (CFOs, CROs) = leading indicators. Track them.

📚 Resource Spotlight

  • Book: “Exit Path” by Basil Peters – short, practical founder’s guide.

  • Podcast: Acquired.fm’s Stripe IPO Prep episode.

  • Tool: PitchBook’s free weekly deal tracker.

✍️ Editorial Closing

This week confirms:

  • AI infra remains the hottest exit class.

  • Healthcare AI is entering M&A acceleration phase.

  • Fintech PE rollups will define 2025–26.

  • Exec hires and regulatory wins are the real smoke signals founders can’t ignore.

👉 Whether you’re a founder plotting your 3-year roadmap, or an investor scouting the next $1B opportunity, remember: Exits are made in the prep, not the pitch.